Reversing the rising road toll

Australia’s National Road Safety Strategy[1], published in 2021, set a goal of reducing fatalities by at least 50%, to fewer than 571 by 2030. The long-term goal is for zero fatalities by 2050. We would need a dramatic turn around if this were to be achieved. Current trends suggest that this target is unlikely to be met. In fact, the number of road deaths in Australia has risen for each of the past five years consecutively, from 1,097 in 2020 to 1,296 in 2024[2].

Finland’s approach to road safety – “liikenneturvallisuutta”

Like Australia, Finland has set the aim of achieving zero road deaths or serious injuries on their roads by 2050. Unlike Australia, they just may be on track. Finland was awarded the 2024 European Transport Safety Council[3] prize for outstanding progress in road safety. This was awarded due to reducing road deaths by 29% over the previous decade and achieving zero road deaths over a 12-month period in Finland’s capital city, Helsinki.

So, how has Finland been able to achieve this? By taking a few key steps including:

• Lowering speed limits in urban areas, including more than half of Helsinki’s streets now being posted at 30km/h.
• Extending their vision zero strategy to include rail, water and air transport in addition to roads.
• Increasing construction of pedestrian and bicycle paths.
• Installing automatic speed cameras on almost 3,000km of main roads.

The challenges

Australia faces some additional challenges in achieving similar results to Finland. Not only does Australia have five times the population of Finland, but also spans a geographic area 23 times larger. This presents significant challenges in the volume of roads, particularly rural roads, needing to be built and maintained to move such a vast population. The Australian Automobile Association[4] found that regional Australians are five times more likely to die on the roads than those living in Australia’s cities. This is due to factors including generally higher speeds, driver fatigue and a lack of enforcement.

Larger vehicles, including SUVs and utes, are also more popular than ever in Australia,. They make up over three quarters of vehicles sold in 2023. Every one of the top 10 best-selling passenger vehicles was a large vehicle [5]. While larger vehicles present benefits to vehicle occupants through an increased ability to absorb impact in a collision, these vehicles present an increased risk to occupants of smaller vehicles and vulnerable road users (VRUs), including pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists. A 500kg increase in vehicle weight has been found to increase the probability of a fatality by approximately 70%[6].

The risk to VRUs is highlighted through their significant representation in fatalities. They made up 494 or 37.2% of road user deaths in the 12 months to June 2025, which is an increase of 2.9% over the previous year. This statistic is comprised of 264 motorcyclists, 192 pedestrians and 38 cyclists.

The Safe System Approach

It can be easy to blame road user error as the cause of most crashes that occur on our roads, but the Safe System Approach urges us to rethink this. The Safe System Approach recognises that mistakes are an inherent part of the system. And instead, focuses on designing a road network featuring a series of layers that aim to prevent mistakes from resulting in death or serious injury. The four key layers of protection that make up the Safe System Approach are as follows.

1. Safe roads & roadsides: Roads are designed to reduce the risk of crashes and lessen the severity of those that do occur through features, such as roadside safety barriers.
2. Safe speeds: Speed limits are set based on the safety of the road environment and the desire to minimise crash severity.
3. Safe vehicles: Modern vehicles are equipped with various safety technologies, both designed to prevent a crash and to protect occupants and VRUs if a crash were to occur. Australasian New Car Assessment Program (ANCAP) assess vehicle safety and assign a star rating to allow consumers to compare the relative safety of different vehicles.
4. Safe road users: Relates to the behaviour of road users and includes education, licensing and compliance with road rules.

At Marvel, we keep the Safe System Approach front of mind in everything we do, whether designing transport infrastructure, carrying out road safety audits or conducting safe systems assessments. This requires an appreciation of how all elements of the road environment work together to protect road users, particularly those more vulnerable to death or serious injury. Through anticipating and designing for road user error, we aim to embed layers of safety into our designs to create more forgiving roadside environments and minimise the risk of serious outcomes if a crash were to occur.

Speed: Design vs Posted

Speed is a major contributor to serious and fatal crashes. Speeds 5km/h over the speed limit have been found to double the likelihood of being involved in a crash.

So, what can we do as transport professionals to help influence speed?

It is generally accepted to design roads to a ‘design speed’, being 10km/h higher than the ‘posted speed’. This is due to the assumption that it provides an additional factor of safety. But what if this is inadvertently contributing to the problem?

When a road is designed to a speed higher than the posted speed limit, it allows for wider lanes, gentler and higher radius curves and a more forgiving roadside environment. Rather than act as a deterrent, these factors encourage road users to travel at higher speeds. This creates a psychological disconnect between the environment that a road user experiences and what is posted on roadside speed signs.

If posted speed and design speed were better aligned, how might driver behaviour change? Would this encourage motorists to drive closer to the posted speeds?
Could greater alignment also lead to increased awareness and caution on the road?
And ultimately, would lower speeds reduce crash severity and road fatalities?

While the idea presents a number of questions, one clear benefit of designing to the posted speed is the transport project cost savings from designing and constructing to a less stringent standard, allowing our state and national road budgets to go even further.

The silver bullet

While we are quickly running out of time to reverse our fortunes and achieve the target 50% reduction in fatalities by 2030, could there be a silver bullet on the way to our 2050 target of zero road deaths?

With the advancement of artificial intelligence over the last few years it’s hard to imagine a future that doesn’t involve autonomous vehicles. As outlined by Scott in his recent article, Driving into the future: Autonomous vehicles, autonomous vehicle technology is already in operation in some US cities. Autonomous vehicles have the potential to completely eliminate driver error as a contributor to crashes and road deaths.

There are still several hurdles that need to be overcome before mass adoption can be realised in Australia. These include legal and regulatory barriers, as well as the need for infrastructure and technology to be adapted to suit Australian conditions, including to the movements of our unique wildlife, such as kangaroos.[7]

Autonomous vehicles may not be a silver bullet just yet, but they are certainly one to keep an eye on as we move toward our ambitious goal of zero road deaths by 2050.

If you want help designing safer roads, reach out to the team at Marvel Engineers.